“Vertrouw erop dat de Federal Reserve op het juiste moment en in voldoende mate in zal grijpen.” Dat is wat ik in mijn vele gesprekken en discussies met veel economen en analisten altijd als hét argument kreeg te horen als zij mijn zorgen over aanzienlijk hogere inflatie in de komende jaren counterden.
Mijn argument waarom ik er geen vertrouwen in heb dat de Federal Reserve – of andere centrale banken – op tijd en in voldoende mate zullen ingrijpen heeft onder meer te maken met de historie.
Niet alleen sinds het begin van de huidige crisis – maar ook in de afgelopen decennia – hebben de centrale banken met de Fed voorop in mijn ogen laten zien gevoelig te zijn voor politieke druk.
Het makkelijkste deel is achter de rug
Dat is van cruciaal belang, omdat het makkelijkste hoofdstuk voor de centrale banken achter de rug is. Het is niet moeilijk de rentes in een rap tempo te verlagen, in het geval van de Fed zelfs naar 0%, en staatsobligaties op te gaan kopen om de lange rentes omlaag te drukken. Het moeilijke deel, het deel waarin de centrale bankiers moeten laten zien dat ze ook de politiek gezien minder populaire beslissingen kunnen en durven nemen, is nu aangebroken…
De Fed heeft eerder deze week mijn vermoedens bevestigd dat centrale banken niet in staat zijn op tijd in te grijpen. Ondanks een aankondiging van de centrale bank om het stimuleringsprogramma af te bouwen durft ze op het moment suprême die stap toch níet te zetten.
Kromp de Amerikaanse economie fors in 2009, toen de eerste ronde van het QE-beleid werd aangekondigd, inmiddels groeit die met ruim 2 procent op jaarbasis. De inflatie bedraagt 1,5 procent en je mag verwachten dat die zal oplopen als de economische groei in de VS aanhoudt.
Bij deze inflatiecijfers hoort geen Fed-rente van 0 procent en zouden ook de lange rentes best mogen stijgen ten opzichte van de all-time lows. Niet wat de Fed betreft echter. Omdat de 10-jaars rente richting 3% klom besloten de Amerikaanse monetaire ridders de QE-draaiknop met rust te laten.
‘Behind the curve’
De conclusie kan dan ook niet anders zijn dan dat de Fed, luid en duidelijk met woorden én daden, laat merken dat ze zoals dat heet behind the curve zal blijven. Dat wil zeggen, de centrale bank zal niet proberen inflatie te voorkomen, maar zal die gedogen en laten oplopen. De centrale bank zal pas ingrijpen als de inflatie echt te hoog wordt. Het alternatief is dat de bank vóór de curve kruipt en dus preventief inflatiestijging in de komende jaren voorkomt. Maar als de Federal Reserve ervóór kruipt kan ze blijkbaar de Amerikaanse economie in een nieuwe, mogelijk langdurige, recessie storten. Dat wil de centrale bank absoluut vermijden. Dit was mijn verwachting toen ik mijn boek ‘Geldmoord’ begon te schrijven. Ik ben sinds woensdagavond alleen maar verder gesterkt in die verwachting.
En die debatten en gesprekken met veel economen en analisten? Die eindigden steevast met “de tijd zal het uitwijzen” of de Fed op tijd en in voldoende mate zal ingrijpen. Sinds woensdag heeft de tijd uitgewezen dat de Federal Reserve niet op tijd zal ingrijpen. Over enkele dagen kijken we naar hoe het zit met ‘in voldoende mate’ ingrijpen.
Omdat onlangs de vierde druk van ‘Geldmoord’ is verschenen, met daarin het nieuwe voorwoord, is dat voorwoord én het eerste hoofdstuk, getiteld ‘De gouden eeuwen voor de koopkracht’ (met daarin onder meer inflatieontwikkeling in Nederland sinds 1450 (!) ) nu GRATIS te downloaden op de site www.geldmoord.nl
Edin Mujagic
Federal Reserve grijpt toch niet in…
44 gedachten over “Column: “Federal Reserve blijft stevig behind the curve””
Beste,
Ik kwam vanochtend op de website van de Financial Times een bijzondere, maar zeer treffende comment tegen, Volgens mij van een Nederlander:
‘Beware beware’
Nation, Nation, beware inflation
It’s an old and serious threat.
You can be sure it will always occur
When a country is hugely in debt.
When money runs out, there will be no doubt
The government will hold up its hand.
A demand too great will stir fierce debate
On how long such measures can stand.
Resistance will grow, as the public will show
That it won’t vouch for all that falls short.
Then a country in need will consider indeed
The Central Bank as a last resort.
Beware, beware, a government’s affair
With the bank that prints our money.
It may look like a fling, just an innocent thing;
The result will not look so funny.
It’ll start with some hints: a few rounds of prints
To cover the present month’s bill.
In the end you will see the story will be
That money is created at will.
Although it may seem that this can redeem
The indebted country’s account.
This free money fiction will lead to addiction
And greater troubles will mount.
Hint, hint, continuous print,
Will flood the country with cash.
Large scale creation will lead to inflation
‘Cause soon money’s value will crash.
As prices explode people’s trust will erode
In a currency once so strong.
To back the illusion of a printing solution,
In my view, is utterly wrong.
Beware, beware, inflation is there
Where Bank and Government huddle!
Than spend, spend, before it’s the end
And your cash is turned into rubble…
© Victor Broers, 2012
Mooi gedicht, mijn reactie is een beetje laat maar toch bedankt voor het doorsturen!
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