Tag: gold

Why the ECB should buy gold instead of bonds from Eurozone countries

Article written by Richard van der Linde, first published on Linkedin

‘What would you do with €80 billion per month to stimulate the economy in Europe?’

That was the question posted by the makers of a documentary for Dutch national television (VPRO Tegenlicht) about money creation by the ECB. A few days after the broadcast there would be a Meet Up and the makers called upon the general public to propose alternatives for the current ECB policy of buying bonds for €80 bln a month. I sent the following proposal and was selected to discuss the idea with a panel of economists who –by the end of the discussion – seemed to like the idea.

Does the ECB really create money?

Yes and no. Money as we know it is actually credit – created by banks. The stuff the ECB makes is another type of money that we regularly call ‘reserves’. Whenever we transfer money to someone at another bank, our account is credited by our bank, but in the background they actually transfer reserves to the other bank.

What is more important to understand is that when the ECB buys bonds or other assets from a bank, they rarely transfer wealth to that bank. There may be side effects from that transfer that banks profit from – like increasing prices of certain types of assets – but the essential message is that when the ECB buys bonds for an amount of €80 bln, the sellers hardly get any richer. All that is happening, is that the wealth of the sellers is becoming more liquid. Banks make a slight profit on the sale, but still only a fraction of the €80 bln. So, the ECB does create a particular type of money, but they are not handing it out to banks.

Could the ECB provide people with, for example, a basic income instead?
Luckily not. The ECB is created by governments for the purpose of having a board of smart people to increase or decrease the amount of central bank money to keep prices steady. And, by steady, I mean inflation between 0-2%. These people are not elected democratically and are not to decide on the way the government spends its wealth. They just convert existing financial assets (mainly government bonds) into central bank money or reverse the process whenever they think it is needed in order to keep prices within the range their mandate prescribes. Only, people keep believing that the ECB could provide a basic income while they only seem to support banks. And that’s how I ended up at a Meet Up where the audience kept proposing ideas for spending the money on all sorts of social programs. Of course, you could change the statutes of any government body, but there lies no practical value in such debates since people like to see some change happening within their own life time. How about the real alternatives?
Solving a sudoku
You can certainly debate the validity of the objective of economic growth, the practice of government intervention and even about the nature of the Eurozone. But within the paradigm of a Eurozone that seeks growth through monetary policy, the options are limited. Many economists argue for governments to spend more into the private sector to regain more growth but member states don’t want to let go of the 3% ceiling for budget deficits, meaning that not many new government bonds will come into existence while the ECB already bought most of them. Of course this is nothing more than a very large sudoku since all the rules and objectives are man made and subject to change. The ECB is currently shifting to buying corporate bonds to reach its monthly spending target of €80 bln, but it’s hard to see why that would result in any economic growth. If you want the government to increase spending, but not to increase its debt, then you should buy some of its assets to enable them to spend more money (that can be taxed back in the future).
Buying government’s assets instead of its debt
A government has many assets on its balance sheet, but my proposal at the Meet Up was aimed at one asset in particular. It’s an asset of which it is hard to imagine why a country would still hold any of it, especially when being a member of a currency union. I’m talking about gold, of course. The Eurozone countries hold over 10,000 tonnes of gold, which amounts to about €400 bln. The ECB already has some 50 tonnes of gold and I’d like them to shift their monetary policy to buying the gold of Eurozone countries. To prevent side effects from irrational behavior my proposal includes that countries would get an option to buy back their own gold for the same price at any later date and that the gold would remain in the member state vaults where it is currently kept. Should there still be any hidden connection between gold reserves and the value of a currency, then you can imagine in this case why that wouldn’t amount to anything substantial since the gold has already accrued on the balance sheet of the ECB through all the government bonds it holds. More important for the value of the euro is how those member states will spend the money they receive from selling the gold.
Mario Draghi and the basic income
Here’s the good news for those in favor of a basic income or other social programs: the money that governments receive can be used to finance such proposals. And if they don’t, you can punish them at the next election. So, don’t blame Mario Draghi for not spending the €80 bln on social programs, but, if anything, blame him instead for not buying gold from Eurozone countries! Richard van der Linde

13 december 2016
Russia adds 40 tonnes to gold reserves

Russia has added over 40 tonnes of gold to it’s reserves in October, according to the latest data released by the Central Bank of Russia. Since 2006, the year in which the country started to accumulate gold, they never added such a great amount of gold as last month. By adding 1.3 million troy ounce (40,43 tonnes), the total gold reserves of the Russian Federation reached 1.583,17 tonnes. Valued against a gold price of $1.265 per troy ounce, this gold hoard equals a market value of $64,43 billion.

The past ten years Russia has quadrupled it’s gold reserves from less than 400 ton almost 1.600 tonnes. And while the precious metal represented less than 4% of the total reserves, today it is about 16,5% of the total reserves. The shift from foreign exchange reserves to gold is a process which started in 2006, but it gained more speed during the financial crisis of 2008 and the crash of the price of oil in 2014.

Russian gold reserves quadrupled since 2006

International reserves of Russia

From currency to gold reserves

Russia wants to reduce it’s dependency on dollars and therefore it keeps diversifying away to euro’s and gold. Last year Dmitry Tulin, governor of the Central bank of Russia, stated that only gold reserves are a one hundred percent insurance against political and legal risk. This advantage is great enough to overcome the volatility in the price of gold.

In the first ten months of this year Russia has added 167,73 tonnes of gold to it’s reserves, which equals to little over 200 tonnes on an annual basis. That would be on par with the record gold purchase of 206 tonnes in 2015.

Annual purchase of gold by Russia since 2006

Central banks buy gold

The Central Bank of Russia is the largest gold buyer of all central banks. The country takes the sixth position on the list of countries with the largest gold reserves, behind the United States, Germany, Italy, France and China. Other countries buying lots of gold in the last couple of years are China and Kazachstan.

Central banks became net buyers of gold in 2010 and are still adding precious metals to their reserves. According to the Official Monetary and Financial Institutions Forum (OMFIF), gold will make a comeback as an important monetary reserve.

This article is brought to you by Hollandgold, precious metals dealer in the Netherlands. For more information on buying gold, you can contact them at [email protected] or by phone +31(0)88-4688400.

22 november 2016
Rabobank: “Gold is a bubble which will burst”

Gold is a bubble which will burst, according to Rabobank chief investment officer Han Dieperink. In his latest update on financial markets, he expects gold to drop below $500 per troy ounce, much lower than the current price of about $1.315 per troy ounce. He sees a pattern in the price of gold which resembles a bubble that is about to burst, presented in the graph below. Apparently, he doesn’t take into consideration the lowest interest rates ever recorded in human history and the fact that central banks are adding gold to their reserves.

According to Dieperink, the inflation-adjusted price of gold has been around $400 per troy ounce for the last hundred years. From his perspective, the rise of gold to $1.900 per troy ounce back in 2011 was clearly a bubble. Based on his bubble theory, he expects the gold price to fall by as much as 70% to a level below $500 per troy ounce. The Rabobank analyst made a similar forecast in late 2015. Since then, the price of gold rose from a multi-year bottom of $1.060 all the way to $1.370 per troy ounce.

Rabobank still negative on gold

While analysts from ABN Amro, JP Morgan and Credit Suisse revised their gold forecast to a new reality of lower rates and more quantitative easing, the Rabobank sticks to the $500 scenario. Dieperink points to the negative interest rates, the Brexit referendum and fear in the financial markets to explain the rising price of gold since the beginning of this year. But apparently, he doesn’t expect those fundamentals to have a long-lasting impact on the price of the precious metal.

Rabobank expects gold to drop to less than $500 per troy ounce

Gold is not a commodity

According to Dieperink, there is no reason why the price of gold can’t drop below the cost of production (about $850 per troy ounce), because there is a huge above ground supply of gold in the market. This is a weakness in his reasoning, because the value of gold is not determined only by it’s use as a commodity. If that would be the case, the metal would have been worthless already, since there has been a substantial supply of above ground gold for centuries. The stock to flow ratio of gold will gradually increase over time, due to large scale gold mining.

For central banks and a large part of the world population, gold is more a wealth reserve than a commodity. The use of gold in industry is limited, because there are often cheaper alternatives around. Instead, most of the gold is held by individuals and centrale banks in the form of jewelry, coins and bars. In other words, as an alternative store of value and as a wealth reserve. The price of gold doesn’t go to zero, because the metal is being hoarded by savers and investors around the world.

In an environment of negative rates and with growing distrust towards central banks and governments, more people favor physical gold over paper financial assets. Russia, China and other central banks are not buying gold to make a buck from a new bull market in gold. No, they buy it as a tangible wealth reserve besides foreign exchange reserves.

Flight to safety

The wealthy are looking for a safe haven and the number of options is shrinking rapidly. When you think gold is a bubble, you might want to call government bonds a bubble as well. What is the purpose of buying a government bond, if the expected cashflow is zero or even negative.

20 juli 2016
ABN Amro revised gold price forecast to $1.300

The ABN Amro revised their gold price forecast for 2016 from $900 to $1.300 per troy ounce. The upward revision is remarkable, because the bank held a negative stance towards gold for the past couple of years. As recently as December last year, precious metals analyst Georgette Boele was still convinced the gold price would find a bottom at around $900 during 2016. In her forecast for this year, she wrote about the downward pressure on gold because of the expectation of more rate hikes by the Federal Reserve.

Boele explained she was caught by surprise by the sudden turmoil in the financial markets, which painted a bleak picture for the state of the world economy in both the United States and in the emerging markets around the world. Boele is expecting more trouble ahead for those countries relying on the export of commodities.

Interest rates

She also revised her expectations regarding the Federal Reserve monetary policy. The probability of a rate increase by the Federal Reserve diminished substantially because of the downturn in the stock market and the sudden move to safe havens like precious metals. With higher interest rates, buying gold becomes less attractive, because the yellow metal doesn’t yield any interest or dividends.

Expectations of rising interest rates drove the price of gold down to the lowest level in more than five years, but now the outlook has changed. Falling share prices and the exceptionally low price of oil suggest that the global economy is growing at a much slower pace. As a result, banking stocks are under even more pressure, losing 20% on average since the start of 2016.

Gold price moving up

The price of gold has risen more than 15% this year, a strong rally making it the best performing commodity of 2016 so far. The sudden price increase from the lowest level in five years caught analyst Boele by surprise. In an explanation for Bloomberg she said: “Having been long-standing bears we have now turned bullish on precious metal prices. Our new scenario sees a longer period of weaker global growth.”

She also revised her 2016 forecast for other precious metals. From $15,00 to $16,50 per troy ounce for silver and from $900 to $1.050 for one troy ounce of platinum.

ABN Amro was expecting $900 gold in 2016 just a few months ago

This article is provided by Goudstandaard.com

19 februari 2016
Russia bought more than 200 tonnes of gold in 2015

The Central Bank of Russia keeps adding gold to their reserves, despite the challenges posed by the economic crisis. According to the latest numbers published by the central bank, they added 21,7 tonnes to their reserves in the month of December. Ranked by total gold holdings, Russia holds the sixth place with a total hoard of 1.415 tonnes of yellow metal.

Data from the World Gold Council shows that Russia added a total of 206 tonnes to their reserves last year, after purchasing 173 tonnes in 2014. When Russia started buying gold in 2006, the central bank held less than 4% of their total reserves in physical gold bars. But with a total hoard of more than 1.400 tonnes, the percentage of gold has increased to more than 13% by December 2015. The increase is not only due to adding weight, but also due to the monthly revaluation of gold reserves to the market price.

The Central Bank of Russia wants to increase their reserves, because the precious metal is regarded as a safe haven without political counterparty risk. The precious metal is seen as a backup asset in the international financial and monetary system and is held by central banks all over the world. Since the start of the financial crisis in 2008, central banks have been net buyers of the precious metal.

Source: Hollandgold

Russia keeps buying the precious metal

Russian goldreserves increasing in both volume and value

Total reserves of the Russian central bank are moving towards the yellow metal

Gold as a percentage of total reserves

22 januari 2016
Austria successfully repatriates gold from London

The Austrian central bank has successfully repatriated part of it’s gold reserve from the Bank of England and wants to show this to the rest of the world. So they invited the press to visit the central bank and take a look at the freshly delivered goldbars in the vault. Nikolous Jilch from Die Presse was attending this press event and shared a picture with us on twitter.

Breaking: Austrian NB presenting repatriated Gold to journalists. @freegolds @zerohedge @KoosJansen @VictorCleaner pic.twitter.com/Ee7js2k7hf

— Nikolaus Jilch (@JilNik) December 11, 2015

Gold location policy

Earlier this year, the central bank of Austria announced it’s plans to repatriate 110 tonnes of gold, a significant portion of it’s total hoard weighing about 280 tonnes. According to Ewald Nowotny, governor of the Österreichische Nationalbank, the repatriation of gold is part of the new gold location policy of the central bank. The central bank doesn’t only want to bring back precious metal stored in Londen, it also wants to expand the amount of gold held at the Swiss National Bank.

Until recently most of the Austrian gold was stored abroad, which led to a lot of public debate and a desire to bring back at least some of the bars belonging to the Austrians. The illustration below shows the old and new location policy of the Österreichische Nationalbank.

Location of Austrian gold reserves

Global repatriation of gold

When Venezuela decided to repatriate gold from the Bank of England back in 2011 and 2012, it was met with a lot of suspicion and scepticisme. But now it seems he set a new trend by bringing in gold stored abroad. The past couple of years more countries followed the example set by Venezuela, like Ecuador, Germany and the Netherlands. They have already shipped some yellow metal back to their own central bank vaults.

In Belgium and France there has been public discussion about repatriating gold, while the people in Switzerland started a referendum forcing the central bank to bring back all the gold reserves held abroad.

It is quite remarkable that the Austrian central bank invites the press to take a look at the newly arrived gold bars. What kind of message do they want to sent to the rest of the world?

Update: Austria doesn’t store gold at the Bundesbank, as we mentioned previously on Marketupdate.

11 december 2015
Invest in Gold or Silver: Pros & Cons

Gold and silver are always considered to be safe from an investment standpoint. As precious metals, they are the first commodities people around the world turn to when they predict an economic or financial crisis, as it helps them protect their investment.

When thinking about investing in either gold or silver, it is important that you consider the pros and cons of investing in each precious metal. Depending on the type of crisis at hand, one might prove to be a better choice over the other. So without further ado, let’s discuss them both.

Should You Invest in Gold?

Pros

Safe haven: This is perhaps the most common reason why people own gold. It’s considered to be a currency all on its own, meaning that it can store value, especially in times of economic distress.

Gold Supply: Just as with most other commodities, it is becoming harder to find new deposits. Even if a new source is discovered, the cost of excavation is quite high. This helps in stabilizing the price of gold rather than making it fluctuate.

Stock Market: The stock market is a good place to make money recently and let’s hope it remains that way. However, if you begin to witness distress on Wall Street, pulling out your money and investing it in gold will be a good idea.

Cons

Central Banks: The major demand for gold often comes from developing economies that have had budget surpluses. They use this surplus to buy gold reserves in an effort to appreciate their currency. One forecast is that gold buying is likely to drop by 34% this year.

Dead Money: While gold may have a certain appeal to it, it just lies there and doesn’t make you any more money unless you feel that the price is high enough for you to sell it. Even then, you are only earning the difference. If the market seems stable for now, you might want to consider investing in stocks, which at least will yield dividends.

Should You Invest in Silver
Pros Diversification: In the context of the stock market, you might hear a lot about diversification. Typically, it means not placing all your eggs in one basket and spreading your investment to minimize risks, for instance, investing in both large and small companies. However, precious metals tend to have a lower correlation to other investments, so if your stocks seem to be declining, the price of silver may increase. Return: Another reason to invest in silver is simply to make some money off of it. Silver prices fluctuate often by leaps and bounds; the trick is to keep an eye on the prices and to take advantage of them at the opportune moment. Cons Hassle: Buying silver, taking possession of it and holding on to it until prices rise is a big hassle. Not to mention, when you want to sell it, you have to physically carry silver from your home and take it elsewhere to sell it off. Better alternatives: Silver prices are dependent on economic activity, so when the economy is strong, this metal does quite well. Unfortunately, when the economy is strong, you also have better alternatives available to make money than silver, for instance, the stock market; so determine whether you do really want to invest in it or not.
About Gold Bullion Australia: Gold Bullion Australia assists clients from Melbourne, Sydney, Brisbane, Adelaide, Perth and all over Australia in buying precious metals like gold and silver. They stock leading LBMA certified goldbars and silverbars from refiners like PAMP Suisse, Perth Mint, Ohio Precious Metals and NTR for their customers.

10 november 2015
Move over ZIRP… Here Comes NIRP!

Precious metals prices enter the new week looking to extend the rally that began Oct. 2nd. Silver has gained nearly 10%, and gold is up almost 3.5%. The notion that the Federal Reserve governors may have missed their window to raise interest rates is beginning to sink in with investors. In fact, if the U.S. economy should fall into recession, investors may see central planners move from zero interest rate policy (ZIRP) to the launch of negative interest rates.

The minutes from the most recent Federal Open Market Committee meeting reveal Janet Yellen and company are looking to the socialists in Europe for ideas, and central bankers there have already experimented with negative interest rate policy (NIRP).

Bottom line: You should soon expect to start paying interest for the “privilege” of lending your savings to a bank!

This week, investors will be watching reports on inflation, retail sales, and industrial production. The prospect of recession continues to loom larger, despite a small rally in stock prices. For now, investors seem more focused on the delay in hiking interest rates than deteriorating fundamentals.

Precious Metals: More Important Than Ever in Your Portfolio
Nobody is talking about it these days, but we still live in an inflationary age. Wall Street is fixated on the possibility of deflation as prices for crude oil fall and headline Consumer Price Index flat-lines. But the wheels of global inflation continue to turn. Zero interest rates and bond purchasing programs have defined central bank policy for most of the last decade. Central bankers developed these extraordinary programs and sold them to the public as economic stimulus. It is now clear just how little of that largesse made its way into the real economy. We now know the real purpose of those programs was to stimulate bank profits and boost equity markets. Meanwhile, government debt and entitlement commitments have only grown larger. That epic problem was top of mind for investors when gold and silver spot prices peaked in 2011. Battles over the debt ceiling and inflation fears captured headlines. Unfortunately for precious metals bulls, the central planners at the Fed and Wall Street managed to shift investor focus away from those topics. Higher stock prices, heavily massaged economic data on employment and consumer prices, and hammering down of paper gold and silver prices all help to mask the fundamental problems that make metals so essential in modern portfolios. These days, most investors seem unconcerned about the inflationary potential of the trillions of dollars created by the Federal Reserve to buy U.S. Treasury bonds and mortgage securities. Many are outright “inflation deniers,” and few seem the least bit worried about what ZIRP or NIRP will ultimately do to the purchasing power of the dollar. But rewarding borrowers and spenders while waging jihad against savers IS going to lead to serious ramifications. And all those extra dollars created in multiple rounds of QE are out there – in the stock markets, parked as excess bank reserves, and just about everywhere else but in the real economy. Inflation and financial sector risks have not been vanquished. They are still there, and, in fact, they are still growing. They aren’t weighing heavily in investor psychology today, but change is already in the air. Fear will factor prominently in investor decision making once again – perhaps soon. The Federal Reserve is in no position to significantly raise interest rates. Congressional Republicans will soon reveal just how incapable they are of drawing a line in the sand on raising the federal debt ceiling even higher than the current $18.1 trillion cap. And people are once again talking about the possibility of recession. Investors are starting to worry about exorbitant price to earnings (P/E) valuations, falling corporate profits, and a potential bond bubble. Some corporate and municipal bonds are priced as if the borrower was Apple when the financial statements look more like they belong to Enron. Despite all of the disparaging talk about precious metals, there is always demand for an inflation hedge that offers privacy, diversification, and zero risk of going bankrupt. Look for investor demand to rise dramatically in the coming years in spite of the bias against gold from Wall Street. Gold and silver may be down, but after thousands of years of history as a reliable store of value, but they are anything but out.
Money Metals Exchange
Clint Siegner is a Director at Money Metals Exchange, the national precious metals company named 2015 "Dealer of the Year" in the United States by an independent global ratings group. A graduate of Linfield College in Oregon, Siegner puts his experience in business management along with his passion for personal liberty, limited government, and honest money into the development of Money Metals' brand and reach. This includes writing extensively on the bullion markets and their intersection with policy and world affairs.

20 oktober 2015
China on gold: “Troy ounce no more”

On 28 October, the Chinese central bank will launch their new 2016 gold and silver Panda coins. An interesting detail discovered by @BullionBaron is that these coins will not appear in one troy ounce size. Instead, they will be minted on a metric weight system with sizes varying from 1 gram up to 1 kilogram. The one troy ounce version of the gold and silver Panda coins are replaced with a coin weighing 30 grams. That’s slightly less than a troy ounce, which equals 31,1034768 grams.

The press release on the People’s Bank of China website mentions nine different sizes for the gold Panda and three different versions of the silver coin. All these coins have a 99,9% purity and will be produced with a limited mintage. For more details on mintage and the yuan face value, we refer to the press release on the central bank of China’s website.

Gold coins: 1 gram, 3 gram, 8 gram, 15 gram, 30 gram, 50 gram, 100 gram, 150 gram, 1 kilogram

Silver coins: 30 gram, 150 gram, 1 kilogram

From troy ounce to 30 gram for the gold Panda coin

From troy ounce to 30 gram for the silver Panda coin

Troy ounce
The history of the troy ounce goes back to the Roman empire, where bronze bars were casted in a size referred to as 'troy pound'. One twelfth of this size was called the uncia back then, or ounce in English. That is where the English name troy ounce emerged, a weight defined as 480 grains or 31,1034768 grams. The troy ounce format has been used ever since in the monetary system. It is known to be in use in England since about 1400. The American Congress recognized the troy ounce as a measure of weight in the Coinage Act of 1828. The term troy ounce is often connected to the city of Troyes as well, once an important trading town located in France.
Precious metals
While our monetary system evolved from gold and silver coins to fiat money, the troy ounce weight survived as a standard weight for precious metals. Gold, silver, platinum and palladium coins are often based on this odd weight of a little over 31,1 grams. Well known investment coins like the Maple Leaf, the American Eagle and Philharmonikers, just to name a few, are all based on troy ounces or a fraction of it.
China
The history of the troy ounce lies in civilizations and monetary systems in the Western world. That's why the troy ounce is quite unfamiliar in China. Because the Chinese monetary system didn't use the troy ounce, it is far from logical to use this standard measure of weight besides the metric system of grams and kilograms. So it isn't just a symbolic move by the People's Bank of China to switch from troy ounce to grams for their investment coins. The shift from troy ounce to the metric system is an ongoing event in China, were they prefer gold bars of 1 kilogram instead of the 400 troy ounce Londen 'Good Delivery'. Swiss refiners have been melting many of these larger bars into new kilogram bars, destined for the Chinese gold market.

16 oktober 2015
Domeinnaam Gold.co.uk wisselt voor £600.000 van eigenaar
In het Verenigd Koninkrijk is onlangs een recordbedrag van £600.000 (omgerekend ruim €820.000) neergeteld voor de domeinnaam gold.co.uk. Voor zover bekend is dat het hoogste bedrag dat ooit betaald is voor een webadres dat eindigt op het Britse ‘co.uk’. De domeinnaam werd gekocht door Rob Halliday-Stein van BullionByPost, de grootste aanbieder van fysiek edelmetaal in het Verenigd Koninkrijk.

Volgens Halliday-Stein is het webadres gold.co.uk letterlijk goud waard. De domeinnaam moet zijn geld nog terugverdienen, maar daar neemt de ondernemer ruim de tijd voor. Het is volgens hem een investering voor de komende twintig jaar. “Het zit misschien wat ijdelheid in, maar het is wel een pragmatische vorm van ijdelheid.”

Op de domeinnaam gold.co.uk staat een nieuwe website waarmee Halliday-Stein vooral de meest vermogende klanten wil bereiken die goud en zilver in opslag willen. De domeinnaam werd in de begindagen van het internet geregistreerd door een man genaamd Jack Gold, die het blijkbaar leuk vond zijn achternaam vast te leggen.
- Lees verder bij Hollandgold
17 september 2015
CPM Group: “Comex is not running out of gold”

Last week we wrote (dutch) that there is no shortage of gold in the Comex. We refuted the persistent rumor pushed forward by many gold blogs that the Comex would default soon, because they barely have any gold left for physical delivery. We got further confirmation on this by the CPM Group, a well known consultancy firm with expertise in the commodities and precious metals markets.

In a short two-page report they show how total gold stocks in the Comex (Registered + Eligible) are still relatively high, in comparison to the last three decades of gold trading at the Comex. When measuring the total gold stocks against the open interest, one would also find that there is no reason to be worried about physical gold deliveries at the moment. Only a small percentage of all gold contracts is settled in metal, which is of no surprise given the fact that both sides of the gold trading at the Comex are often leveraged. Most buyers only want price exposure to the metal and have the slightest interest in getting gold bars out of the bullion bank vaults.

No shortages
In their market commentary of this week, the CPM Group reminds us that the story about the Comex gold inventory isn't exactly new. In August 2013, there was also a lot of speculation about a possible default at the Comex in the gold blogosphere. Back then, the CPM Group also issued a report to refute these rumors. The fact that the CPM Group again debunks the rumors about the Comex doesn't mean they have a negative stance towards holding gold. In fact, they are very positive about buying gold as a long term investment at current prices. But in the short run, the CPM Group doesn't expect any substantial rise in the price of gold. In their latest market commentary, the CPM Group is very critical about all the false rumors being spread to promote gold. This is what they said (emphasis is ours):
"With gold and other precious metals prices having fallen in recent months and remaining weak, a few gold marketing groups have become more desperate about convincing investors to keep buying gold, resorting to misleading market commentary suggesting that gold prices are about to ‘explode’ sharply higher due to fundamental tightness. This is only one of the false stories being used to try to bull the market higher."

According to the CPM Group, the Comex is still not running out of gold (Source: CPM Group)

16 september 2015